Parlay Strategy
The majority of the sports betting world would tell you that parlay bets are for suckers. That’s because, in most cases, the bettor gets worse odds than what the true odds should be. This is clearly evident in football and basketball three-team parlays. The pay off on a three-team parlay in those sports is 6-to-1, while the actual odds of winning one are 7-to-1. That’s because there are seven different outcomes that can take place.
The best and most profitable strategy to employ with parlays is known as a correlated parlay. Another way to incorporate parlays into your strategy is to bet into weak numbers and combine them with other, stronger spreads to increase your exposure to the weak number. Updated April 8, 2019 A round robin (RR) is simply a nickname for a type of parlay wagering strategy. You take a group of three or more selections and put them in combinations of individual parlays. You could enter these parlays individually yourself, but a lot of sportsbooks allow you to select a round-robin option and do it automatically.
- $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Patriots -3.5 (1st Half)/Patriots -7 (Game) $100 Parlay to win $250 on the Lions +3.5 (1st Half)/Lions +7 (Game) Now obviously one of these wagers is going to lose, but that’s ok! Our goal here is just to win however many parlays we need to in order to turn a profit.
- Parlay Bet A ‘Parlay Bet’ which is also known as an ‘Accumulator’ or ‘Combo Bet’ is a series of single bets that are combined into one wager. You only have to combine 2+ bets in one wager to make it a Parlay Bet. If any of the single bets lose in the wager then the parlay loses.
- Combining the use of parlays with a sound strategy for buying points can be profitable. Only attempt this if you know how to buy points efficiently though. The best sport for doing this is probably football, and we have an article in our football guide that focuses on strategy for buying half-points.
While parlays are certainly sucker bets in basketball and football, they aren’t necessarily sucker bets in baseball. In football and basketball, the spread is mostly used in parlays. A better parlay bet for basketball and football, with the best odds, would be to use the money lines. That’s why baseball parlays have much more favorable odds than the other two sports because money lines are involved.
What is a Parlay Bet?
A parlay is defined as a bet on multiple teams. Let’s just stick with a two-team parlay and say that you want to bet $50 on the Tigers and Angels. No, both teams would have to win, otherwise your bet would lose. The Tigers are -200 over the White Sox with Justin Verlander on the mound, while the Angels are +110 against the Rangers with JC Ramirez on the mound.
The payout is figured by taking the $50 and placing it on the Tigers. If Detroit wins, the $50 becomes $75 since the bettor profited $25. Then, the $75 goes on the Angels at +110, and if they win you would get back $157.50. The order of the teams when calculating the parlay makes no difference as you will come out with the same outcome either way.
For those of you that like to calculate the odds in your head, just divide 100 by the odds on a certain team. If you like the Nationals at -165 and want to make a two-team parlay with the Cardinals at -135, the first thing you would do is divide the odds by 100. That will give you a decimal figure, at which point you would add one.
In this case, you would do 100/165, which would be 0.61, and then add one, which comes to 1.61. That’s your number for the Nationals. The Cardinals would be 100/135 plus one which calculates to 1.74. The reason for adding one is because if you went to a sportsbook, the payout would factor in your original wager. If you simply bet the Astros at +110 for $100 you would get back $210, not $110.
Now that we have our 1.74 and 1.61 numbers figured out, it’s time to multiply the size of the parlay wager by the two decimal figures to calculate the payout. A $30 parlay wager would be calculated like this: 30 X 1.61 comes out to $48.30. Next, you would multiply 48.30 X 1.74 which comes out to $84.22. That would be the money you would receive if both the Nationals and Cardinals won. If either or both lost, your $30 would be gone.
MLB Parlay of Two Big Favorites
This is the most popular baseball parlay. It makes sense, too. This is where you have two big favorites you really like, but don’t want to lay big juice to bet each team individually. Let’s say that you believe both the Yankees -200 and Red Sox -200 are going to win on today. Instead of paying $100 to win $50 on each, which would be risking $200 to get $100, it would be a much smarter move to just parlay these two together. It cuts down your risk greatly and the return is actually better than most would think.
You would bet $100 to win $125 on this two-team parlay. That means you’re either going to profit $125 or lose $100. That’s much better odds than potentially losing $400 or $100 by betting both the Yankees -200 and Red Sox -200 individually. The only downside is that you would win $200 if both the Yankees and Red Sox came through. I would much rather limit my risk by taking the two-team parlay.
Baseball Parlays With a Favorite & Two Underdogs
Every day is different. There will be certain days where you only like favorites and other days where you only like underdogs. However, there will be a time that arises when you find a heavy favorite that you know is going to win and a couple of underdogs that are undervalued. This makes for an excellent parlay opportunity.
Let’s say you have a -200 favorite and two +150 underdogs. What you want to do is place a two-team parlay on the -200 favorite with each +150 underdog. Each parlay would profit you $275 with a successful wager. If just one parlay hits, you would lose $100 on the other parlay. That means you’d win $275 and lose $100, netting you a $175 profit on the day.
Money Line Parlay Strategy & Total Parlaying
This is a popular bet for many professionals that feel strongly about a home team or a road team. Let me try to make sense of that for you. If you believe a home team is going to win the game, then there is likely one-half inning that is not going to be played. So parlaying a home team and the under makes sense since there will only be 8.5 innings played instead of the full nine. If you like a road team then it’s likely that the full 9 innings will be played. That’s because the road team will be ahead in the 9th inning, giving the home team a chance to bat and score an extra run or two to get the over.
A parlay bet is a popular form of sports wagering most gamblers are familiar with. In case you’re not, this bet is rather easy to understand. A parlay is simply a combo bet where, rather than betting several teams individually, you group them into a single wager. Using this option, the payout is greater and the risk is less, but you need all teams selected to win.
To give an example, say you’re interested this week in betting Jets -4, Patriots +3, Dolphins +2.5 and Colts -7. If your bankroll is limited to just $100, using straight wagers you’d make four separate bets of $25 to win $22.73. If you we’re feeling both lucky and in the mood to gamble, you might instead bet them all together as a four team parlay. Under the parlay option, the stakes would be $100 to win at least $1,000. To win, you’ll need to go 4-0; if one or more games push while all others win, the payout is reduced, and with any other outcome, the bet is a loss.
What happens if there’s a push in a parlay? That bet will be taken out of the parlay and the payout will be reduced as if there were one fewer team in the parlay. So if you had a 4 team parlay and you got three picks cocrrect and the other was a push, you would be paid out the odds of a 3 team parlay.
Parlay bets can be very tempting as they can offer some big payouts. See a recent parlay Kevin made at 5Dimes.eu and cashed in on!
Are Parlays Sucker Bets?
There is a general misconception in sports betting that all parlays are sucker bets. This is simply because most sports bettors are not familiar with how they work, or how to bet them properly. In this article, I’ll address parlay betting strategies, but first let’s look at parlay odds and how they are calculated.
The parlay odds at most Las Vegas sportsbooks are:
2 teams 2.6 to 1
3 teams 6-1
4 teams 10-1
5 teams 20-1
6 teams 40-1
7 teams 80-1
8 teams 150-1
Online the odds are similar, though some sites such as BetNow and MyBookie offer better odds starting with three teams and up. What’s important to note is that these are fixed odds based on a 50/50 wagering proposition. If a spread is listed at Home Team -7 / Road Team +7 this is 50/50 proposition. If, instead, the spread was Home Team -7 -105 / Road Team +7 -115, this is no longer a 50/50 proposition, and the payout will be calculated using a method bookmakers refer to as “true odds”. I’ll cover that later in this article, but first let’s take a moment to understand where fixed parlay odds are derived from.
Let’s say you decide for the next eight weeks you’re going to bet the Monday night football game, starting with a $1.00 bankroll and betting your entire bankroll each week until you go 8-0 or bust. The potential win is as follows:
Week 1: $1.00 to win $0.91: If win total profit = $0.91 (Bankroll =$1.91)
Week 2: $1.91 to win $1.74: If win total profit = $2.65 (Bankroll =$3.65)
Week 3: $3.65 to win $3.32: If win total profit = $5.97 (Bankroll =$6.97)
Week 4: $6.97 to win $6.34: If win total profit = $12.31 (Bankroll =$13.31)
Week 5: $13.31 to win $12.10: If win total profit = $24.41 (Bankroll =$25.41)
Week 6: $25.41 to win $23.10: If win total profit = $46.51 (Bankroll =$47.51)
Week 7: $47.51 to win $43.19: If win total profit = $89.70 (Bankroll =$90.70)
Week 8: $90.70 to win $82.45: If win total profit = $172.15 (Bankroll =$173.15)
The reason parlays are often sucker bets shows up in this middle column. Had you bet these in an 8 team parlay, you’d only get paid 150 to one. Essentially, a parlay is no different than betting all in each time, only parlays generally pay much worse. However, you’ll notice the odds are not poor until you get to four teams, where the sportsbook has a whopping 31.25% advantage. Two teams pay a smidgen worse than the manual parlay (all in each time) option, where three team parlays pay a smidgen better. Rarely ever is a 2 or 3 team parlay a true suckers bet.
What Does a Parlay Pay?
As I mentioned earlier, fixed parlay odds vary greatly between online sportsbooks. Here is some info on which sites offer the best fixed parlay odds:
In general two team parlays pay +260, or $260 for every $100 bet. BetNow offers +264.5, and 5Dimes.eu offers +264, which is better than the +260 most betting sites offer.
3 team parlays pay 6/1 or $600 for every $100 bet. BetOnline.ag is the leader in the industry in 3 team parlay payouts.
This is the area where betting sites generally hurt the sports bettor, paying only 10 to 1, which gives them a 31.25% advantage. This can be avoided when betting at BetNow where the payout is +1228.3, or at 5Dimes where it is +1228.
Generally speaking, parlaying 5 teams or more teams is not a good idea; however, for sports gamblers looking for a lotto ticket, 5dimes.eu and Bookmaker.eu each offer up to 15 team parlays and have by far the best odds in the business on these.
How much does a 15 team parlay pay? A 15 team parlay will pay out over +16,000. I just tested this out and a $1 15 team NFL parlay at -110 odds will payout $16,306. Good luck hitting on that!
True Odds Parlays
1 Earlier, I mentioned fixed odds are only given when all selections are 50/50 propositions. If one side of a line requires a greater stake than the other to yield the same payout, this is not a 50/50 proposition, and the bookmaker will now use “true odds”. What’s important to note is that true odds doesn’t actually mean the “true odds” of winning. Rather, true odds pays the same as if you bet each team individually and rolled the profit forward each time, which is what I showed in the example of 8 all in bets starting with a $1.00 stake.
To calculate true odd parlays, each bet first needs to be converted into a multiplier. To do this, take what a winning ticket would return and divide it by the amount risked. For example, at -110 a $110 stake returns $210 ($110 stake + $100 win). Calculating the multiplier as return/risk here, we plug in 210/110, which means the multiplier is 1.91. If we did the same on -115, the multiplier is 215/115=1.87.
Let’s say you’re in the mood to gamble on an 8 team parlay, but the only out available to you is a bookmaker paying 150-1 fixed odds. A trick of the trade here is to include one bet that is priced differently than -110 in order to force the bookmaker to use true odds. So, let’s say you make 7 selections priced at the standard -110 pricing and one at -115. A true parlay calculates by multiplying each modifier together. The math is 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.91 * 1.87, which equals 173.41. This bet returns 173.41 times the stake, which includes the risk amount, so the bet is 1 to win 172.41. Notice this is significantly better than the fixed odds payout of 1 to win 150 on an 8 team parlay. In short, the trick of the trade when dealing with poor fixed odds is to simply add one team to the parlay that is priced differently than the standard -110.
As you can now see, if you know how to bet parlays properly, they are not always sucker bets. There are, however, a few reasons that parlays are generally not a good move. I’ll cover these, and then cover the times it does make sense.
Top Reasons to Avoid Parlays
1) Progressive betting systems are generally regarded as poor strategy for both bankroll management and bankroll growth. Professional bettors make wagers based on their quantified edge per game. While the math can work out, doing the math for proper bet sizing on a parlay is a lot of added work with little to no upside for most sports bettors.
2) Parlay bets have higher variance than straight bets. Here you’re getting the same odds, but your chance of hitting a dry spell is greatly increased. When the odds are the same it is most often better to go with the lower variance option, which in this case is straight wagers.
3) Line Shopping – Sports bettors maximize their profit by always shopping for the best price. For example, finding -4 when other sites are -4.5, and finding reduced vig options such as -104 instead of -110. When betting parlays, you’ll need to find the most favorable odds for each team at a single betting site. This scenario is rare, so generally you’ll end up with better odds by making straight wagers at multiple betting sites.
Parlays That Make the Most Sense:
Reduced Juice – BetOnline.ag offers 6.5 to one on three team parlays. This comes out better than betting sides at the -105 price standard reduced juice sports books offer. In sports such as NFL football where 50/50 wagering propositions are common, a sports bettor gets far superior odds by betting 3 team parlays at BetOnline.
Correlated Parlays – If a bookmaker was offering betting lines on both “will it be cloudy today?” and “will it rain today?”, if allowed, you’d be much better off betting either both as no, or both as yes, in a parlay bet as opposed to straight wagers. While this is a simplified example, there are plenty of times when outcomes are correlated in sports betting. For example, a handicapper might determine that if one team covers the spread, the game is more likely to go over or under the posted total. Also, during the final week of the NFL season, a certain team winning or losing the day game might result in a previously important night game now having no meaning in the playoff race.
Parlay Patz Strategy
Free Play Bonuses – Several online betting sites, for example BetNow, offer players free bets based on the size of their initial deposit. Free play bonuses are not the same as cash. The difference is that a bet made with cash returns both stake and win, where a bet made with a free play returns only win. Parlays allow you the chance to use the same free play more than once, because a parlay really is only a wager that continues to place stake+win on the next selection. Remember, fixed odd three team parlays pay a little better than true odds. So when using free plays to bet 3 team parlays, you’re getting slightly better odds, and also a chance to apply that free play stake to three different bets. This is common knowledge that 3 team parlays are a great use of free play bonuses.
3 Team Parlay Payout
Circumventing Betting Limits – I’ll warn you upfront that betting sites do not take kindly to this, and it might get you banned. The basic idea here is, say you find a parlay with monster value in a small market with low betting limits. Let’s say a woman’s field hockey line opens at +150 when it should be +100. Here making ten unique two-team parlays, using the +150 bet with a random -110 each time might be advantageous, as on average you’ll get down 5 times the max bet. At -110 juice the expected ROI is less, but to get the maximum amount down on line of significant value, it might make sense. While personally I rarely use this strategy online, I do attempt to get away with it in Las Vegas from time to time. This takes a little bit of acting, such as starting to walk away from the cage and then saying wait, also give me… Know this: It is a trick of the trade advantage players use that is not for novice bettors.
This concludes our article on parlay betting. As a final tip: if you enjoy using parlays as a lottery ticket, www.Bovada.lv runs a $10,000 weekly parlay jackpot during football season, which is an added bonus on top of what a $5 stake pays on a 10 team parlay win. To learn more, see the promo section at www.Bovada.lv. If nothing else, this article gives you some great conversation material next time someone in the sports bar says, parlays are for suckers. Hopefully, it ends up being much more than that, adding extra winnings to your bankroll. Either way, we wish you the best of luck.
Winning Parlay Strategy
Other Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles:
» Teaser Betting Strategy
» Prop Betting Strategy
» How To Get Max Value When Betting