Basketball Gambling Tips
The NBA and college basketball seasons are well under way. Both deserve your attention as both offer daily opportunities to make a profit.
Here’s a good rule of thumb: when it comes to betting on basketball, take the pundits’ picks with a grain of salt. Don’t rely on their “insider” knowledge. The folks who have the statistical data and predictive models necessary to accurately forecast game outcomes aren’t sharing them with the public. They keep their picks close to their chests to maximize their returns.
- During the basketball season bettingexpert’s top hoops tipsters will supply expert predictions across a wide range of basketball betting markets including: Game Result (or Moneyline), Points Spread, First Quarter/Half Points Odd/Even, First Point Scored and Winning Margin, as well as competition Outright bets.
- This game report has an NBA basketball pick, betting odds, and trends for tonights key matchup. Indiana Pacers vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction, 3/3/2021 NBA Pick, Tips and Odds by Guy Bruhn - 3.
Having said that, you can improve your odds of winning your basketball wagers by using a number of time-proven tactics. I’ll showcase the top 10 below. These are the tips that’ll have the greatest impact on your NBA betting success.
Basketball betting tips. Predictions 02/03 07:30. China - Basketball Association. Jilin Northeast Tigers.
Check (And Double Check) The Starting Lineup
Don’t Overestimate The Home Court Advantage
Forget Your Favorite Team
Keep Your Eye On The Important Stats
- turnovers
- offensive rebounds
- free-throw percentage
- tempo (or pace)
- true shooting percentage
- offensive/defensive rating
- home/away stats
- how many starters are named Lebron James
Watch For Big Line Moves
Look For Signs Of Court Fatigue
Bet Against The Spread On Losing Streaks
Ignore The Betting Trends
Keep Your Eyes Peeled For “Value” Bets
If You Bet The Over/Under, Do Your Research
- whether each team plays offensively or defensively
- each team’s offensive efficiency
- each team’s defensive efficiency
- which sportsbook offers the best over/under odds
- each team’s pace or tempo
- each team’s level of fatigue
- injuries sustained by starters
As you know, a team’s starting lineup is instrumental to the team’s scoring potential. The coach understandably wants his best players in the game from the outset.
Check odds here:
But there’s one thing that can throw a wrench into the works: late injuries.
A starter who suffers an injury serious enough to keep him on the bench might have a huge impact on his team’s performance. For example, suppose Kyrie Irving sustains a torn ACL at the last minute. With him warming the bench, the Cavs might have trouble if they’re playing an aggressive team, such as the Warriors or Lakers.
The takeaway: always check a team’s starting lineup before placing your bet. Make sure all starters are accounted for, and absent from the injury list. A corollary to this tip is to avoid placing your bet too early.
Most teams do better on their home turf than on the road. They’re playing in front of their fans, who are rooting for them to win. The refs are sometimes biased. And they’re often more rested than visiting teams. The players are sleeping in their own beds and probably enjoying their favorite meals at home.
That’s a far cry from the experience of staying in a hotel.
Of course, the home court advantage doesn’t guarantee the home team will win. In fact, this article on ESPN argues that the advantage has become less and less pronounced over the last 40 years.
The takeaway: home court advantage is still important when it comes to betting on basketball. But don’t overestimate its value.
If you’re a fan of the sport, you undoubtedly have a favorite team. And if you’re like most NBA fans, it’s probably the team in your city or county.
The problem is, having a favorite can bias your betting decisions. You want your team to win. You’ve followed them for years and are emotionally invested in them. Understandably, when the time comes to place your bet, you’re inclined to bet with your heart.
That’s fine if you’re just betting for fun. It’s like betting on your child to win his karate match, even though you’re certain his opponent is more skilled. Again, you’re emotionally invested.
But that’s a losing proposition in sports betting. Emotions are almost guaranteed to lead to poor long-term results.
The takeaway: if you want to make a profit, set aside your favorites and bet with your head. Cold, calculated logic, preferably supported with solid data, trumps emotion every time.
You can really go into the weeds with statistics when it comes to basketball. It’s not quite as bad as baseball, but you can still literally waste hours chasing data that fail to move the needle in any significant way.
That doesn’t mean you should ignore stats altogether. Rather, identify the important stuff and disregard the rest.
What basketball stats should you focus on? Here are several that can have a big influence on the outcomes of games:
The takeaway: be wary of pursuing stats that don’t matter. Zero in on the ones that do, starting with those listed above.
This is something that most novice basketball betters miss. Oddsmakers adjust the lines on games as action pours into one side or the other. Their goal is to balance the action. When a lot of action flows in, that balancing act occasionally requires big, sudden line movements.
Such movements reveal opportunity.
For example, let’s say the Cavs are scheduled to play the Warriors. You notice that the line has shifted abruptly in favor of the latter. A smart play at that point would be to follow the line.
What’s happening behind the scenes? What’s causing the line to move?
Often, it’s smart, well-heeled sports bettors identifying and acting upon mistakes they perceive the oddsmakers to have made. Sometimes, the movements stem from major changes in personnel – for example, Lebron James yanking a hamstring during game-night practice.
The takeaway: when lines move, there’s good reason. Follow the smart action.
Eighty-two games per season makes for an exhausting grind. The fact that starters manage to move themselves up and down the court late in the season is impressive. When they manage to post big numbers night after night, it’s downright remarkable.
But they’re human and subject to the same physical laws as you and I. They get tired, particularly after playing several nights in a row. They suffer fatigue.
The effect is even more pronounced on the road. Not only does the court time take its toll, but sleeping in hotels, eating out, and being away from the comforts of home does, too. Burnout is common after a long series.
The takeaway: think twice before betting on a team suffering from court fatigue. There’s a good chance the players’ minds and bodies are operating at a suboptimal level.
No sportsbook in its right mind would offer straight win/loss bets on basketball. That’d be a surefire recipe to lose money.
For example, imagine if the Warriors were scheduled to play the 76ers. If Bovada were to allow folks to bet on which team was likely to win, all of the action would flow to the Warriors. And if, as most people would predict, the Warriors were to beat the 76ers, Bovada would take a major drubbing.
Spreads exist, in part, to prevent that from happening.
When you bet against the spread (ATS), you’re not as interested in which team will win. Rather, you’re interested in how the teams perform with regard to the spread.
When it comes to betting ATS in basketball, a lot of bettors focus on teams’ winning streaks. They figure a hot team is likely to maintain its momentum and cover the spread. But data show that’s actually untrue, especially for streaks that extend beyond three games.
As the streak lengthens, more action pours into the side favoring the team enjoying the streak. Oddsmakers respond by adjusting the lines and point spreads. That makes it more difficult to bet against the spread on the favored team.
The takeaway: if you’re going to bet against the spread, look for increased value among teams suffering losing streaks. These teams are avoided by most bettors, which means oddsmakers may give you an extra point or two in an attempt to balance the action.
While matchups, both in terms of teams and positions, are important to take into account, trends are all but irrelevant in basketball. Sure, you want to be familiar with a team’s track record. You want to be aware of its performance throughout the season.
But trends in basketball betting refer to something completely different. Trends point to whether a team has managed to cover its spread in the last three games. They point to the volume and percentage of action favoring one team over another, according to the money line, the point spread, and the over/under.
These numbers can be informative, but they’re far from predictive. They won’t help you to accurately forecast a game’s outcome. They merely give you general insight into what other bettors (many of them misinformed or uninformed) are doing with their bets.
The takeaway: it’s fine to look at betting trends, if only to satisfy your curiosity. But don’t rely on them as useful data. It’s like examining a city’s annual population migration data to predict whether a certain family will move to another city this week. The trends don’t provide any insight to that end.
Oddsmakers are adept at setting lines. They use mountains of data and vetted predictive models to accurately forecast outcomes.
But they’re not perfect. They make mistakes.
Learn to identify these mistakes, and you can uncover significant value that’ll increase your odds of winning.
Fair warning: it’s not easy. It requires deep analysis and relatively good math skills. But if you’re willing to roll up your sleeves and put in the work, you can find value bets that pay off.
The takeaway: making smart basketball bets involves keeping your eyes open for hidden, unexploited value. Sometimes, you can find such value by noting big line movements. Most times, however, you’ll need to put in more effort.
Betting the over/under in basketball is one of the simplest bets you can make. You don’t need to worry about money lines or point spreads. You don’t even care which team wins the game. The only thing you care about is the total number of points scored by the two teams.
The simplistic nature of basketball over/under bets poses a downside: it tempts a lot of bettors to place them without doing even a modicum of research.
Before you bet an over/under, take the following into account:
The takeaway – Don’t place an over/under bet without doing basic research. Handicap the totals using the factors above.
Conclusion
Basketball betting, both NBA and college games, attract a lot of action at places like Bovada, MyBookie, and BetOnline. But much of the action is uninformed or misinformed.
You can do better. Use the 10 tips highlighted above to give yourself an advantage at these and other top online sportsbooks.
Basketball is one of the world’s most popular sports or pastimes.
Its worldwide fame has grown to great heights thanks, largely to widely-followed tournaments like the National Basketball Association (NBA), Fiba World Cup, Euroleague, Asian Basketball Confederation (ABC), etc.
Of course, players idolized by millions of fans are also the major force why this game also called hoops remains a part of our lives especially those who love sports.
Singapore is one of the countries that love basketball. Its fans not only patronize the sports simply by watching the NBA and the likes but also through online gaming.
Singapore’s online gaming in basketball has been a major part of its online gaming industry catering to the most loyal basketball fans and newcomers or beginners as well.
The next time you decide to try your luck playing basketball online, consider the following valuable tips:
Basketball Betting Tips
Sign Up with a Reputable Bookmaker
Register with as many bookmakers as possible. Although basketball is not the most popular sport in online gaming, bookmakers always offer plenty of odds on the basketball games being played. To make sure you can bet on the match of your choice, it is good to open an account at all reputable betting sites that offer welcome bonuses and give you lots of opportunities to wager.
Follow the Favourites of Bookmakers
Basketball Gambling Is Tough
Once you have signed up with your chosen bookmaker, look at the odds that are being offered for the matches you wish to place bets on.
You need to look at the team news. When a top team plays a team lower down the tournament, they will always have a strong chance of emerging winners. Back the favourites but the odds are likely to be very short. Therefore, it is a good idea to place handicap bets in order to get better odds.
Be Updated on the Team’s Form
Keep in mind that basketball is a team sport, and so the fitness of teams will also be a major factor when betting.
Some teams that take part for example in a midweek NBA game may have a weary squad and therefore they may not be in focus at the weekend. Fatigue can then have a direct impact on the results of a match. Another thing to consider is the individual health of players.
It is possible that some players will be absent in the line-up for a game. If they are the top players, then this will greatly weaken the team, especially if they have a lack of good reserves. This may well change your opinion of how a game will end.
Motivation Factor
Always keep in mind that motivation will remain a determining factor in the game.
You should always consider the importance of a basketball game. It could be a battle-for-top-place game, a relegation match or a local derby.
If it is a meaningless match, teams may not be so motivated and field in weakened line-ups. The lack of a star or key player may also affect how a team plays. This may lead teams to play more cohesively or just leave them completely out of rhythm.
The rivalry between two opposing teams is also an additional motivator. To learn more about a team’s motivation, read pre-game press statements.
You can then place your bet knowing just how crucial the game is to each team.
Starting Line-ups
Always check a team’s starting line-up before placing your bet. Make sure all starters are accounted for, and are not on the injury list
Home Court Edge
Home court advantage is still important when it comes to betting on basketball. But don’t overestimate its value. The home-court advantage does not guarantee the home team will win.
Favourite Team
If you want to make a profit, set aside your favourites and bet with your head. Don’t let your emotions get over you.
Ignore Betting Trends
Don’t rely on betting trends as useful data. They just give you a general insight into what other bettors (many of them misinformed or uninformed) are doing with their bets.